In this fourth and final edition in a series of articles detailing elements of Sussex County’s current draft of this 2007 County Comprehensive Plan Update, released Sept. 25, the Coastal Point will look at the mobility element of the draft plan, as prepared by the Delaware Department of Transportation (DelDOT).
When DelDot’s Bobbie Geier presented the mobility element of the comprehensive plan update at a Sept. 25 unveiling in Rehoboth Beach, much of her focus was on the impact of growth and growth trends on the county, and what that means for the county’s transportation systems.
Examining the period between 1990 and today, and projections for the future through 2030, Geier pointed to ongoing increases in overall resident population, from 113,000 in 1990 to an estimated 194,000 in 2010 to a predicted 253,000 in 2030.
She noted that while the area’s population continues to grow strongly, that growth appears to be slowing, from 23.5 percent between 1990 and 2010, according to 2007 projections, to a predicted 16.6 percent between 2010 and 2020, and a predicted 11.7 percent between 2020 and 2030.
While population numbers generally take into account only the area’s resident population, DelDOT in the mobility element does acknowledge the impact of the traditional summer influx of people to Sussex County.
Maps of the county indicating summer population density in 2005 and projections for 2030 show an increasingly dense mass of population around the Atlantic shore and inland bays. Dark green spots of population at or above 600 people per square mile cover most of the areas near large bodies of water, with medium shades of green spreading farther to the west to cover more than half the county with density at or above 151 people per square mile in the summer of 2003.
Geier also cited a widely acknowledged “graying” of Sussex County’s population, as ever more retired and soon-to-be retired people make the area their full-time and future homes.
A diagram of age distribution for residents shows a jump of 20 percent in the area’s population of those 60 to 69 between 2000 and 2030. The percentage of residents ages 75 to 84 is expected to grow 54 percent during that time period, while those 85 or older are expected to grow some 149 percent by 2030.
Accompanying that population growth and growth of older populations is what Geier called a “shrinking” of household size. From 2000 to 2030, she said household size is expected to decrease by 26 percent, to just under 2.5 people per household – requiring 34 percent more houses to hold the same number of people as in 2000.
That may spell bad news for affordable housing and good news for the overall real estate market, but it poses concerns for the county’s transportation networks, as more houses and smaller households means more cars traveling the roads to deliver even the same number of people to their places of work, commerce and recreation.
Geier said the growth of the county’s population is likely to also lead to growth of the area’s job market, particularly in the areas of retail, hospitality and services for that aging population.
She said that would also have transportation consequences, with the workers holding those jobs increasingly unable to afford housing near their work and needing to commute to jobs on the retail/hospitality-rich eastern side of the county, where many of the area’s elderly and retirees are now moving.
The result is an ever-expanding network of congestion-plagued roadways, growing from a handful of major arteries and population centers in 2005 to the bulk of the county’s major roadways by the summer of 2030. DelDOT identified many of these areas as “problem areas” needing attention in the agency’s 2001 transportation plan, which is currently being updated for 2008.
Many of the areas have already had projects planned to try to improve their respective problems, but the map of projects in the 2008 capital transportation program indicates many areas yet to be addressed since 2001, with an acknowledged shortfall of funds for DelDOT in recent years. Among them is the Route 26 corridor, improvements to which have been delayed due to that funding crunch.
Still other problem areas are identified on the 2008 map, many of them on local roads around the Route 26 and Route 54 corridors, from Dagsboro to Bethany Beach and south to Fenwick Island, with no projects yet planned to address them.
Improvements in movement needed east-west and north-south
Geier provided a list to those attending the Sept. 25 hearing in Rehoboth Beach of issues, strategies and actions DelDOT was looking at to address all of the above problems:
(1) Address east-west movement, by completing improvements to major east-west roadways (such as Route 26), and considering bypasses for towns most affected by tourist or heavy truck traffic.
(2) Address north-south movement, by preserving and increasing capacity on major north-south routes while pursuing plans for a north-south limited access highway on existing or new alignments (as recently recommended by a task force on this issue but opposed by some area residents).
(3) Provide for evacuation routes, wherein Geier asserted that many residents are unaware of existing evacuation plans and that the perception exists that current evacuation routes become easily congested and are prone to flooding during severe storms.
(4) Implement coordinated public transportation services, by creating a mechanism that will enable providers to exchange information to provide an improved level of mobility for human services transportation users.
(5) Expand travel alternatives beyond the automobile, to provide a comprehensive, interconnected transportation system throughout the county. Currently, bus service to the beach areas is limited to the summer season. County officials have suggested enhanced bus transportation and even light rail may need to be considered in the near future.
(6) Improve intergovernmental coordination, by strengthening communication and coordination among municipal, county, state and federal government in order to maintain an efficient transportation infrastructure.
(7) Improve air quality. Geier said the county should consider strategies to improve its air quality and be prepared for county-wide emissions testing.
(8) Use of sub-area planning, encouraging better coordinated planning between and among county, state and local governments, to preserve agriculture, protect waterways, demonstrate conservation in community design, promote interconnectivity and enhance overall quality of life.
Geier also included a list of “themes and needs” for the above strategies in her presentation, noting:
• Funding requirements need to be estimated and new funding sources found.
• Priorities for DelDOT will be on major roads and arterials, while municipalities and developers will have to focus on local roads.
• Focus on sub-area plans, including transportation, sewer and stormwater.
• Plans to hold another round of public meetings during the fall of 2007.
• Reprioritization of projects and schedules.
• Completion of the transportation plan and mobility element, with continued implementation of projects.
State officials are currently considering the 2008 iteration of DelDOT’s capital transportation plan, which is likely to determine exactly which of the above-stated priorities are addressed with projects and budget items in the near future. Also of import will be the final mobility element of the comprehensive plan when it is adopted by the county.
Until then, Sussex County residents and visitors — particularly those on the increasingly congested eastern side of the county — will wait to see whether there is a solution forthcoming to current and future transportation needs.
For more information on the mobility element of the 2008 update of the Sussex County Comprehensive Plan, contact Bobbie Geier at DelDOT, P.O. Box 778, Dover, DE 19903, (302) 760-2119, or e-mail Roberta.Geier@state.de.us.